On The Margin: Total Unemployment March 2013

Today’s Employment Situation report showed that in March “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined notably to 13.8% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also trended down to 7.6%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

Home Inspector Newsletter

Every month in my e-mail I receive a copy of the CNY ASHI newsletter, The Observer.  I read it because it's a mix of quirky info (see below) and great insights from inspectors.  Photos help, too.  It is written mostly by Tom Sherman from Absolute Home Inspections, and reflects his sense of humor.

One of the photos shows a shed snakeskin... a long, shed snakeskin.  The caption reads "Wonder where the rest of this snake is?"  The skin is up among the joists in a house that presumably was being inspected.

Another photo shows a propping system devised by the builder.  Not a good one, either.  The inspector notes that this is new construction, and it was discovered during a stage inspection.  The suggestion is that even new construction should have interim inspections done by an independent company.

On to the fun part:

A helicopter was flying around above Seattle when an electrical malfunction disabled all of the aircraft's electronic navigation and communications equipment.

Due to the clouds and haze, the pilot could not determine the helicopter's position.  The pilot saw a tall building, flew toward it, circled, and held up a handwritten sign that said "WHERE AM I?" in large letters.   People in the tall building quickly responded to the aircraft, drew a large sign, and held it in a building window.  The sign said, "YOU ARE IN A HELICOPTER."

The pilot smiled, waved, looked at his map, determined the course to steer to SEATAC airport, and landed safely.  After they were on the ground, the copilot asked the pilot how he had done it.

"I knew it had to be the Microsoft Building, because they gave me a technically correct but completely useless answer."

(I don't know who to credit, but I love it!)

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: March 2013

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity continued to expand in March while assessments of service-sector related activity pulled back slightly with the business activity component declining while the overall non-manufacturing index slid to 54.4 from last months reading of 56.0.

At 56.5 the business activity index declined a slight 0.70% since February falling 3.25% below the level seen a year earlier.

This month, service industry respondents are sounding very positive with all respondent quotes citing generally improving activity.:


"The economy and our business appear to be improving." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

"Volumes are down slightly, but spending per person is up." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

"Economy and all of our business units appear to be on track for positive gains this year. It may be a struggle, but economic indicators and signs of business growth point to increased spending from our customers." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"Local business climate seems more upbeat as the market moves higher." (Public Administration)

"Winter weather has affected construction, but the spring building season looks encouraging." (Wholesale Trade)

"Sales increased 17 percent last year; sales continue to rise this quarter." (Retail Trade)

"Anticipate a plentiful season, requiring strategic planning with packaging inventories." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)

Skaneateles Real Estate - The Sometime Update (March 21 - April 3rd)

As you can see, our household has been taken over by Final Four fever.  I bought orange table mats, a citrus candle, and these four orange tulips.  Soon there will only be two...Hopefully, of course, Syracuse.

In the meantime, there are houses to sell and homes to buy!  Currently there are only 72 active listings in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service.  Of these, 16 are in the Village and 19 are waterfront.  Eight are sort of new - four are re-listed (freshened) for the season.  Four others range in price from the mid-$200,000s to waterfront closer to a million but not quite there.  One is Village, but the others are either on the water or have lake rights.

In the under contract categories there are only 15, but 6 are new.  Interestingly enough, 5 are in the town, none are waterfront, and there is only one in the Village.

And then we come to the closed properties.  We now have 19 - one more and I will be writing about the First Twenty, spelling out the addresses and the published sale prices.  The new ones cover the Village, Town and waterfront.  They range in price from the mid-$100,000s to over a million.

So - Go Orange!  It has been a spectacular ride this year, and just like the real estate market, filled with ups and downs, tension, relaxation, smiles and tears.  Go Orange!

ADP National Employment Report: March 2013

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in March as private employers added 158,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.66% above the level seen in March 2012.

Perusing the rest of the data in the ADP dataset you can see the the economy is currently showing the most growth for small to mid-sized service providing jobs with goods-producing jobs remaining near trough levels.

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – April 03 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 3 basis points to 3.62% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 1% and the refinance application volume declined 6% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Construction Spending: February 2013

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing improvement in February with total construction spending, residential and non-residential construction spending increasing on the month.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending increased 2.17% from January climbing 20.08% above the level seen in February 2012 while still remaining a whopping 55.15% below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending climbed a notable 4.27% since January rising 34.14% since February 2012 but remained a whopping 66.40% below it's peak in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 0.44% since January and rose 6.08% above the level seen in February 2012 and remained a whopping 27.37% below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.