Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q1 2013 (First Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q1 2013 GDP report showing that the economy grew in the quarter with real GDP improving at an annualized rate of 2.5% from Q4 2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.80% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of 0.62%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines in government spending particularly on national defense with a 11.5% decline in federal national defense spending from Q4.

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 12.6% from Q3.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2012 (Third Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third "estimate" of the Q4 2012 GDP report showing that the economy barely registered growth in Q4 2012 with real GDP improving at an annualized rate of just 0.4% from Q3 2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.67% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of a slight 0.09%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines in exports with the "net-exports" component declining at an annualized rate of 2.8% from Q3, and notable declines in government spending particularly on national defense with a 22.1% decline in federal national defense spending from Q3.

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 17.6% from Q3.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2012 (Second Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their second "estimate" of the Q4 2012 GDP report showing that the economy barely registered growth in Q4 2012 with real GDP improving at an annualized rate of just 0.1% from Q3 2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.61% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of a slight 0.03%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines in exports with the "net-exports" component declining at an annualized rate of 3.9% from Q3, and notable declines in government spending particularly on national defense with a 22.0% decline in federal national defense spending from Q3.

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 17.5% from Q3.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Grow Your Way Out of Federal Largess?

Recently, a slew of know-it-all Keynesian policy junkie types have hit the media with suggestions that those in favor of limited government (or a merely a more limited version than the current incarnation) style budget cuts are dwelling too much on the numerator of the debt-to-GDP ratio and not enough on the denominator.

The suggestion being that we could easily turn around our insolvency problem if the government would simply focus on GDP growth and NOT on the growth of federal spending.

A quintessentially maniacal Keynesian solution indeed!.... Better, smarter government spending will stimulate GDP growth enough to reduce the debt-to-GDP!

Ha! What absurdly delusional times these are.

Reader... let's first establish a few basic facts and then take some time to absorb the chart below.

Nominal GDP has a trailing 20 average annual growth rate of 4.71% while the average growth rate for nominal federal government debt is 7.41%.

Right there you can see a problem, for the last 20 years, GDP has been growing at nearly half the rate of federal government spending.

But taking the Keynesian policy junkies contention seriously for a moment, let's assume that "smart" policy makers could manage to generate an 8% annual nominal GDP rate... a literal farce.... and kept the federal government spending pumping along at it's average 7.41%.

Even given this absurd growth assumption, debt-to-GDP would remain above 100% till 2018 and would still be at a level of 82% in 2050!! ... bear in mind, the debt-to-GDP averaged roughly 50% during the 40 years preceding 2008.

Sorry policy junkies, you can't grow your way out of it federal largess... and certainly not with MORE largess... bring on the cuts and LOTS of them!

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2012 (First Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q4 2012 GDP report showing that the economy unexpectedly slumped with real GDP declining at an annualized rate of 0.1% from Q3 2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.54% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was a decline of 0.04%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines to fixed non-residential investment with the structures component declining 1.1% from Q3, and notable declines in govenment spending particularly national defense with a 22.2% in federal national defense spending from Q3.

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 15.3% from Q3.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q3 2012 (Second Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their second "estimate" of the Q3 2012 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand with real GDP increasing at an annualized rate of 2.7% from Q2 2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 2.67% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.66%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines to fixed non-residential investment in structures, equipment and software with the nonresidential investment component declining at an annualized rate of -2.2% from Q2.

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 14.2% from Q2.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q3 2012 (First Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q3 2012 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand with real GDP increasing at a tepid annualized rate of 2.0% from Q2 2012.

On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 2.32% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.50%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declining exports of goods and services, a notable decline private farm inventories and weakness in non-residential structures.

Government spending worked to buoy GDP with a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase in non-defense spending while a decline in imports of goods also added positively (declining imports contribute positively to the final GDP aggregate).

Other categories such as residential structures also saw notable slowing from the prior quarter registering a still respectable rate of 8.5% while non-residential fixed structures expand by just 0.6%. 

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q2 2012 (Third Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third "estimate" of the Q2 2012 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand with real GDP increasing at a tepid annualized rate of 1.3% from Q1 2012.

On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 2.14% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.31%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from durable goods spending which declined at a rate of 0.2% from Q1 2012 while government spending declined across the board. 

Other categories such as residential structures also saw notable slowing from the prior quarter registering a still respectable rate of 8.5% while non-residential fixed structures expand by just 0.6%. 

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q1 2012 (First Rough Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q1 2012 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand with real GDP increasing at an annualized rate of 2.2% from Q4 2011.

On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 2.08% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.55%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from government defense spending which declined at a rate of 8.1% from Q4 2011 while other categories such as non-residential structures also saw notable weakness declining at a rate of 12% from Q4 2011 shaving 0.35% from real GDP. 

Fixed residential investment, on the other hand, expanded notably (supposedly) increasing at a rate of 19.1% while over the same period.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2011 (Third Rough Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third "estimate" of the Q4 2011 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand at a faster pace than initially estimated with real GDP increasing at an annualized rate of 3.0% from Q3 2011.

On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 1.61% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.73%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from government defense spending which declined at a rate of 12.1% from Q3 while change in private nonfarm inventories made notable contributions accounting for 1.81% of the percent change of final real GDP while providing the majority of the 22.1% quarter-to-quarter rate of change for the entire Gross Private Domestic Investment category. 

That very same category also saw fixed residential investment expand at a rate of 11.6% while fixed non-residential structures declined at a rate of 0.9% over the same period.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2011 (Second Rough Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their second "estimate" of the Q4 2011 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand at a faster pace than originally estimated with real GDP increasing at an annualized rate of 3.0% from Q3 2011.

On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 1.62% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.74%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from government defense spending which declined at a rate of 12.1% from Q3 while change in private nonfarm inventories made notable contributions accounting for 1.87% of the percent change of final real GDP while providing the majority of the 20.6% quarter-to-quarter rate of change for the entire Gross Private Domestic Investment category. 

That very same category also saw fixed residential investment expand at a rate of 11.5% while fixed non-residential structures declined at a rate of 2.6% over the same period.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.