Existing Home Sales Report: July 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for July showing an increase in sales with total home sales climbing a whopping 6.5% since June and rising 17.2% above the level seen in July 2012.

Single family home sales also rose climbing a notable 6.3% from June and rising 16.4% above the level seen in July 2012 while the median selling price increased a notable 13.5% above the level seen a year earlier.

Inventory of single family homes increased from June to 2.00 million units but still remained 3.8% below the level seen in July 2012 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 5.0 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – August 14 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 7 basis point to 4.40% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 5% and the refinance application volume declined 4% over the same period.

Rates now appear to be settling a bit after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.

It appears now though that Chairman Bernanke's latest comments might have worked to provide a bit more clarity surrounding the Feds plans for QE thereby working to halt the recent run-up in rates.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – August 07 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 3 basis point to 4.47% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 1% and the refinance application volume went flat over the same period.

Rates now appear to be settling a bit after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.

It appears now though that Chairman Bernanke's latest comments might have worked to provide a bit more clarity surrounding the Feds plans for QE thereby working to halt the recent run-up in rates.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings June 2013

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assessments of housing activity improved notably in June with the composite HMI index climbing to 52, the highest level seen since early 2006, while the "buyer traffic" index also improved, rising to a level of 40.

It's important to note that June firmly reversed the weakening trend seen earlier in the year, suggesting that activity in the new home market has picked up notably and is remaining strong even beyond the traditionally strong first quarter period.

Looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last year of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales April 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.1% from March, and a gain of 3.7% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales rose 0.84% from March increasing 1.8% above the level seen in April 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales rose just 0.32% over the same period.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

Pending Home Sales: March 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for March showing that pending home sales improved with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 1.5% from February and increasing 7.0% above the level seen in March 2012.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is beginning to adopt the "narrow range" sentiment of years past as limited supply works to mute sales activity:

"Contract activity has been in a narrow range in recent months, not from a pause in demand but because of limited supply. Little movement is expected in near-term sales closings, but they should edge up modestly as the year progresses, ... Job additions and rising household wealth will continue to support housing demand."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

New Home Sales: March 2013

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for March showing a improvement with sales climbing 1.5% from February and rising 18.5% above the level seen in March 2012 but still remaining at an historically low level of 417K SAAR units.

It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes appears to be mounting as unsold units totaled 153K, still though near the lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale went flat at 5.0.

The monthly supply went flat at 4.4 months while the median selling price increased 3.0% and the average selling price declined 1.3% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).

Existing Home Sales Report: March 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for March showing a decrease in sales with total home sales declining 0.6% since February but still climbing 10.3% above the level seen in March 2012.

Single family home sales also declined falling 0.2% from February but still rose 9.1% above the level seen in March 2012 while the median selling price increased a notable 12.1% above the level seen a year earlier.

Inventory of single family homes increased from February to 1.69 million units dropping 16.3% below the level seen in March 2012 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 4.7 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings April 2013

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assesments of housing activity declined in April with the composite HMI index falling to 42 while the "buyer traffic" index declined to 30.

It's important to note that April continued to show a generally weakening trend, a development that is worth noting as the new home market moves through it's most active months at the start of the year (see Bob Tolls explanation for January - early spring being the new home markets most active period annually).

While all indicators have made truly spectacular improvements this year, it's important to note that conditions still remain fairly distressed by historic standards.

Although, looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last few months of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.

New Home Sales: February 2013

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for February showing a notable monthly decline with sales falling 4.6% from January but rising 12.3% above the level seen in February 2012 but still remaining at an historically low level of 411K SAAR units.

It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes appears to be mounting as unsold units totaled 152K, still though near the lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale rose to 5.0.

The monthly supply increased to 4.4 months while the median selling price increased 2.88% and the average selling price increased 14.49% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: January 2013

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in January, nationally, home prices increased 0.55% from December and rose 6.5% above the level seen in December 2011.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings March 2013

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assesments of housing activity declined in March with the composite HMI index falling to 44 while the "buyer traffic" index inscreased to 35.

It's important to note that March continued to show a flattening of sorts to future expectations, a development that is worth noting as the new home market moves through it's most active months at the start of the year (see Bob Tolls explanation for January - early spring being the new home markets most active period annually).

While all indicators have made truly spectacular improvements this year, it's important to note that conditions still remain fairly distressed by historic standards.

Although, looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last few months of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings December 2012

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing continued improvement in December with the composite HMI index rising to 47 while the "buyer traffic" index improved to 36, a level not seen since early 2006.

While all indicators have made truly spectacular improvements this year, it's important to note that conditions still remain fairly distressed by historic standards.

Although, looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last few months of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.