On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index April 2012

Today's release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity improved slightly in April with the seasonally adjusted index climbing 0.05% from March but falling 1.89% below the level seen in April 2011.

The three month moving average of the PCI increased slightly from March indicating that the April Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims May 03 2012

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable declined to both initial and continued unemployment claims while seasonally adjusted initial claims continued to trend well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” declined to 365,000 claims from last week’s revised 392,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 53,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.6%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 3.07 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.42 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 6.50 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

Skaneateles Real Estate - The Weekly Update

Nice time of year, now that the warmth has returned.  People are out looking and buying actually.  A RE/MAX agent called me today to tell me about a property coming on the market that he knew my buyers would want to see.  The old days are coming back.  "Hurry and buy this house before it goes away!"

Which reminds me - we reduced the price of 1650 Coon Hill Road to $169,900 today.  I will hold it open on Sunday from 1:00 to 3:00.  It's had a good deal of activity but no offers - yet.  As I told the sellers, and I firmly believe, there is a price at which the world comes a-calling.  Let's hope it's this price, this weekend - or even before.  Just two miles outside of the village from the light on East Lake Road.  And such a great back yard stretching waaaaay back, with two sheds and sheltering trees on the sides.  Come see!

There are currently 96 single family homes available in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service.  Of these, 28 are in the village and 26 are waterfront.  We are still far under last year's numbers of active listings.  Two new homes came on the market this week, and two others were re-listed.  The new ones are both in the upper $200,000s, one in the village and the other with lake rights in the town.

In the under contract category there are 30 homes - the highest number I can remember seeing in these blogging years.  Four new ones went contingent, coincidentally (or not) all Village homes too.  Their prices range from the mid-$100,000 to almost $600,000 - at least those are the published list prices.

We now have 25 closed properties so far this year.  One of the smaller ones closed, and not in the Village.  This bodes well for 1650 Coon Hill - one less competitive home.  Check out more photos online - the ML# is S261632.  See you this Sunday!

ADP National Employment Report: April 2012

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in April as private employers added 119,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.70% above the level seen in April 2011.

Perusing the rest of the data in the ADP dataset you can see the the economy is currently showing the most growth for small to mid-sized service providing jobs with goods-producing jobs remaining near trough levels.

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 02 2012

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went unchanged at 3.92% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 2.9% and the refinance application declined 0.7% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Constuction Spending: March 2012

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing a slight improvement from last month at near-cycle low levels of spending in March for residential construction while also indicating an improvement for total non-residential spending.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending increased a slight 0.68% from February and rose 7.42% above the level seen in March 2011 while remaining a whopping 63.91% below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending jumped 3.81% since February rising 10.35% since March 2011 but remained a whopping 75.15% below it's peak in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending rose 0.74% since February and climbed 15.16% above the level seen in March 2011 but remained a whopping 32.49% below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: April 2012

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity improved in April.

At 54.8 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) rose 2.62% since March remaining 8.21% below the level seen a year earlier.

Respondents indicated that while there is still some slowness and caution, outlook was overall positive going forward:

"We expect our production levels to remain at the current level or increase over the next quarter." (Chemical Products)

"In general, demand remains strong for products, and we [are experiencing] more supply disruptions now than four to five months ago." (Machinery)

"The economy was off to a good start through the first quarter, but the European issues keep coming up as well as the recent disappointing jobs report. It appears that some of the early gains may be temporary." (Fabricated Metal Products)

"Warm weather in Midwest appears to have helped soft drink sales." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

"Positive increase in volume of sales and orders, and slight uptick in inventories, indicate the overall outlook remains robust through summer at least." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

"Sales are slowing." (Computer & Electronic Products)

"Business conditions on a national scale have a very positive outlook for the commercial metals we provide. At this point, we have outperformed each quarter's goal and anticipate a strong finish." (Primary Metals)

"Strong demand [compared to] previous year." (Plastics & Rubber Products)

"Business indicators suggest a stronger stability in overall environment. Production and orders are stable." (Transportation Equipment)

"Business conditions continue to improve." (Furniture & Related Products)