Friday, December 28, 2012

Skaneateles Real Estate - December 13th through December 28th

Think about all that has happened in the last two weeks.  Devastating news, Christmas, fiscal cliffing, snow, more Christmas....It's that time of year. In real estate in our small town, so much resembling Newtown in so many ways, houses have been listed, viewed and sold.  People have decided to move, others to stay.  Offers have been accepted and others refused.  Plans have been put on hold because houses don't sell, while others are accelerated because they do.  Weave a holiday in there, too.

Currently there are only 83 houses actively listed in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service.  Of these, 23 are in the Village, 21 are considered waterfront of some kind, and the rest are in the town or surrounding towns.  Three new listings came on, actually a re-list in the Village at a reduced price and two new ones in the town.  There's a sweet, much-beloved one out there for under $100,000 - call now if you might be interested.

Of the 18 - only 18! - single family homes in the under contract categories, two are new.  One is in the Village and the other has been coming down in price so it was a great steal for someone.

And again - we have multiple sales, bringing our total so far for the year to 124 homes.  A bonanza.  Five new ones closed, and I am sure with the end of the year others are simply not reported as yet.  The five break out as two in the Village, two in the Town, and one waterfront.  Of course, this triggers the reporting of the Sixth Twenty which will be done soon.

Happy New Year - and let's keep it as profitable as this past year was!

Monday, December 24, 2012

How The Bear Popped The Bubble!

Gather 'round all ye bubble-sitting families and partake in a reading of this warm old holiday classic by Dr. SoldAtTheTop! (Originally posted Christmas 2006!)


Every Bull
Down in Bull-ville
Liked the Housing Bubble a lot...

But the Bear,
Who lived just South of Bull-ville
Did NOT!

The Bear hated the Bubble!
He blamed the Fed, rates and lending!
But the Bulls didn't care, they just kept right on spending.
It could be that Bulls were just very trendy.
It could be, perhaps, they were whipped into a speculative frenzy.
But I think the most likely reason of all
May have been that their noggins were two sizes too small.

Whatever the reason,
Their heads or the craze,
They continued to spend, for days upon days.
And the Bear, staring up from his cave down below
Sensed the limit had been reached, things were going to BLOW!
For he knew every Bull up in Bull-ville that night
Had stretched every dollar, squeezed their finances tight.

"And they're going back for more!" he could see to his dismay
"This just cannot last, not for one more day!"
Then he ran to his closet to fetch a loud-speaker
"I MUST warn them all, before they get in any deeper!"
For, the Bear knew...

...All the Bull girls and boys
Who had been flipping, and borrowing and buying up toys
Were all skirting the edge, sitting perfectly poised
For collapse that once realized... oh, the noise! Noise! Noise! Noise!

Then the Bulls, young and old, will be in a terrible fix.
And they'd have to hunker down and stop all their mad tricks!
And the economy... oh what a mighty deep-six!
It will sink faster than boat load of bricks!

Something would happen that he liked least of all!
Every Bull up in Bull-ville, the tall and the small,
Would all start to panic, when home prices stop swelling.
They'd reverse the craze… they'll all begin selling!

They'd sell! And they'd sell!
And the more the Bear thought of the Bull-Panicky-Sell
The more the Bear thought "This is NOT going to end well!"
"Why for almost a decade I've watched the bubble inflate!
I MUST warn them now!
Before it's TOO LATE!"

He mounted the loud-speaker
To the top of his car
And a siren with flood lights
That were blazing like stars

Then the Bear said, "I’m off!"
And he drove forty blocks
Toward the homes that the Bulls
Had been trading like stocks.

All their windows were bright. Flat panel glow filled the air.
All the Bulls were all carrying-on without even a care
When he came to a stop in the Bull-ville town square.
"This is the best place," the Bear thought as he reached
For the microphone that he would use when he preached.

Click! On went the siren, the lights and the speaker!
Then the Bear started yelling! "Things are looking bleaker and bleaker!
You all must come out, listen to what I have to say
Give me a chance to appeal to your senses today!"

Then one Bull emerged through his front door.
Then another came out, and some more... then still more.
Soon the square was abuzz with a large crowd of Bulls
All grumbling and muttering about association rules.

But the Bear went on "You are all in grave trouble!
I have come here to warn you of the Great Housing Bubble!
You see it's been inflating, stretching thinner and thinner..
If you don't stop now, there will be almost no winners!"

"This is the greatest Ponzi-scheme ever devised
Where all of you have been convinced to not question your eyes.
Just go right on speculating... pushing prices up higher
And assume there will always be a greater fool buyer!"

"But Things are now not looking so hot...
Home sales are plunging, The builders are shot!
Inventory is rising, there is no place to hide.
Soon you will be in for a vicious price slide!"

Then he clicked off the speaker and he heard not a sound.
The Bulls all looked puzzled, just standing around.
Then one Bull, an Economist named David Lereah (Pronounced Le-ray)
Stood up and he shouted, "I have something to say!"

"You are a very foolish Bear!" He said with a sigh
"This is a GREAT time to SELL or to BUY!
Yes prices are moderating, that much is sure true.
But that is a HEALTHY sign that the market will pull right on through.
I've seen all the numbers, I release them you know...
And what I've seen is STABILIZATION as we level off at the low"

"So pack up your things and head off down the hill!
We don't need your type of hype in Bull-ville!"

So the Bear did as he was told, all downhearted and grim.
He silently opened his car door and stepped in.
And he backed down the hill and then crawled into his cave.
And he thought about the Bull-ville that he failed to save.

But just then the Bear heard a horrible sound!
A massive explosion that sent shock waves through the ground!
As he looked from his window, he could not believe either eye...
The whole of Bull-ville had been blown to the sky!

And what happened then...?
Well, in Bear-ville they say
That although he was sad...
His pride grew three sizes that day!
And the minute his heart stopped feeling so blue
He published a book titled "What To Do and Not To Do If a Bubble Finds You!"

Friday, December 21, 2012

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: November 2012

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated a slight improvement for the national economy with the index climbing to a tepid level of .10 from a notably weak level of -.64 in October while the three month moving average improved to a weak level of -0.20.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Give Away!

It's A Give Away Day!

Would you like a chance to win?
Of course you would!
What's even better? There are 15 other prizes you can win also! 

So hop click on over to Living in Yellow and enter to win!! 

Happy Wednesday!
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New Residential Construction Report: November 2012

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results for November with a slight slip in single family permits and significant declines to total and single family starts but with gains to total permits.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, dropped 0.2% from October to 565K single family units (SAAR), and increased 25.3% above the level seen in November 2011 but still remained an astonishing 68.58% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts declined a whopping 4.1% from October to 565K units (SAAR), but rose 22.8% above the level seen in November 2011 but still remained 69.01% below the peak set in early 2006.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings December 2012

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing continued improvement in December with the composite HMI index rising to 47 while the "buyer traffic" index improved to 36, a level not seen since early 2006.

While all indicators have made truly spectacular improvements this year, it's important to note that conditions still remain fairly distressed by historic standards.

Although, looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last few months of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.

Monday, December 17, 2012

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey: December 2012

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends across 22 different current and future manufacturing related activities.

Today’s report showed a slight decline for current assessments of manufacturing activity and an improvement to future assessments with the current activity index falling to a notably weak level of -8.1 while future activity improved to 18.66.

Current prices paid rose to 16.13 while current new orders weakened to -3.7 as assessments of future new orders improved to 32.26.

Weekend Update Link Up

Well it's Monday .. Wah Wah Wah!

Ha ... today is super rainy and dreary and I am just really wishing I could stay home and be lazy and wrap Christmas presents, but unfortunately that is not happening today :(
Too much to do today, and then tonight is my Christmas dinner/Ornament swap with a few of my girlfriends!

Today I am linking up with Sami over at
Sami's Shenanigans for the ... 

So here goes my weekend ... 
Which was very kid-packed and fun might I add ;) 

Our Elf, Mr. Jingles, was up to no good this weekend! 
His sister however is the good one :) 

He TP'd our Living Room and it was a mess, which he didn't clean up haha
It was funny to see the kid's faces when they woke up and saw what he did! We were a little shocked ;)

Next on the agenda... 
We surprised the kids with "Pajama Night" on Saturday and left their PJ's on their beds with a note that said "Meet us in the car" ha and then Chris and I had our pajamas on too, along with Frankie of course, and we had snacks in the car, blankets, and Christmas music playing ... then we drove around and looked at some awesome lights for over two hours ha! It was SO much fun for all of us! 

We found lots of Christmas lights and then went to Fire Station for them to run around and play, and then to Orange Leaf for dessert ha! 
(Which happened to be packed, and we walked in with our PJ's on lol, oh well!)

Next on the weekend front ...
We got ready and took a few pics ... 

 Love this picture of Ella & Ava <3 

Then ... 
We saw Santa!

Pose 1 ... the smile pose

Pose 2 .. the "I'm thinking of what I want for Christmas" pose 

And... Pose 3 .. the Reindeer Ears Pose, lol 

It was funny, but they all were so excited and couldn't wait to tell Santa what they wanted, which actually was ALL different from the things they already told us they wanted ...? We were like say what?? I thought you wanted blah blah blah .. "no we changed our minds" ha. Gotta love that. 
Looks like Chris will be the one fighting traffic and doing some last minute shopping ;) 
(jk babe, I know you're not the shopping pro like me, we will do the "you drop me off at the door and I will run in while you circle the parking lot" number! lol) 

The talented Alicia @ Aesthetiica Photography took the most beautiful pictures, more beautiful than I could have imagined! 
PS. Be sure to check out her blog, she travels ladies ;)

I know this will be a tease, but because we haven't picked which one we want to use for our 
Save the Dates,
I can't share them all yet :( 

But these two I have to share ....
I love this one with my love ...  

And this one with my other love ... ;) 

 We should get our disc in the mail this week and once we pick a Save the Date pic, then I will be able to share the rest of them! Can't wait!!! Ahhh!! So exciting!! :)

Ok I am off to do some work and run errands today ... 

Please don't forget ... 

On Tuesday, December 18th, there will be a blogger day of silence. 
We will post the button and that's it. Please try to not post anything else that day if possible.

We are also raising money that will go to an organization in the memory of this tragedy. The organization is called The Newtown Family Youth and Family Services. Here is the official description of the support service we are donating to: 

"Newtown Youth and Family Services, Inc. is a licensed, non-profit, mental health clinic and youth services bureau dedicated to helping children and families achieve their highest potential. NYFS provides programs, services, activities, counseling, support groups and education throughout the Greater Newtown area.


Please visit THIS PAGE to make your donation.

We can't imagine how they must be feeling, especially this close to the holidays. We would love for you to spread the word on your own blog, Facebook, Twitter, etc. Let's make a difference and use blogging in a positive way. Thank you in advance for participating.

The Blog World 

p.s. If you would like to, copy-paste and repost any part of this, please do. Share on. 
I copied from Living in Yellow :)  

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Friday, December 14, 2012

Production Pullback: Industrial Production November 2012

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing notable increase in November with total industrial production increasing 1.05% since October and rising 2.51% above the level seen in November 2011.

Capacity utilization also jumped 0.91% from October and climbing 0.93% above the level seen in November of 2011 to stand at 78.42%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Skaneateles Real Estate - November 30th through December 12th

Lovely evening, late afternoon.  I am in the office enjoying the company of our new "person at the front desk," Danielle.  She is busy putting together a project Chris Evans gave her.  Neither Chris nor I can handle the copier, but everyone else in Danielle's position can make it hum.  If you're in the Village, stop in and say hello to her.

Currently there are only - and I do mean ONLY - 85 homes for sale in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service.  Of these, 24 are in the Village and 23 are waterfront.  But that's an amazing number.  Just a couple years ago we flirted with the 150 active listings figure.  And that's when we were closing around 75, so we had a two year inventory.

In the "under contract" categories there are 22 single family homes.  This is down, because houses are closing, trying to get people in before the holidays and the New Year.  Which the attorneys have been able to accomplish!

We now have - drum roll please - 119 sold and closed properties in the Skaneateles area.  Prices have come down a bit and people are anxious to let houses go after a couple years. Of the eight new ones that have closed, two are waterfront, three are Village, and the remainder are in the town.

The year will end with a bang, I am sure!  All this is good news to everyone who depends on the housing market - mortgage people, contractors, attorneys, and yes, Realtors.

Taking care of business:  Lately I've been receiving a ton of spam from people who pretend to compliment the blog but only want to have their websites published.  For a while I may simply have to stop allowing comments - so find me on my e-mail or through the office, please.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Christmas Wishlist!

Hello, Hello Friends! 

I have taken a little break the last couple of days just because I've been busy with work ... but today I am taking the day off and catching up on things around the house, wrapping some Christmas presents, etc :)

Does anyone else besides me LOVE to wrap Christmas presents?
I am obsessed!
It's calming kinda and I like to just see the progress made of all the pretty presents under the tree!

I love for everyone to have their OWN wrapping paper ... it's fun and just is exciting to me!
This year for the kiddos (and Chris ha) they will each have their own wrapping paper as usual,
No one will know which paper is theirs until Christmas day!
I love it ... everyone will be dying to know lol a little suspense never hurt anyone ;)

Before I reveal my Christmas Wishlist,
Here is a little of what I was up to the past few days ...

Happy 1st Birthday Mack!
One of my best friends, Kelly, had a super fun and cute 1st birthday party for this sweet baby boy ...

My gifts were a hit ... I got him what any good Aunt would get him ... a grocery buggy and a cleaning set complete with a Swiffer and all hahaha! He loves brooms and vacuums, etc so I thought it would be perfect! 

Kelly made cute little gift bags ... had TONS of food and Sesame Street appropriate snacks ;) 

 Cake time is where the fun began ... 

What a good sport his dad is .... wearing a Cookie Monster shirt haha :) 

There were a millions babies the same age there!!

Kelly and I came up the cutest little "Favorite" board for some pictures he is having this week ..

How cute is that? 

Next up ... 
Face timing with my 88 yr old Papaw! 

Hahaha I love this ... I will forever keep this picture close to my heart ... 
you gotta love technology these days! 
He thought this was the craziest thing he had ever seen. 
My Papaw is funny, and I mean like "have you in stitches, you can't believe he just said that" FUNNY!
If you are new around here, you can check out some amazing Papaw-isms HERE :) 
Enjoy. Ha. Love him. 

Yesterday I went to a Realtor lunch for the Young Realtors of the Bluegrass at our local board 
and was AMAZED at all the toys we raised for children for Christmas!!

Awesome. No words. So great!
So glad to be a part of a community where all of us Realtors can come together and help others. #Blessed.

Lastly on the home front, 
Ella's first Violin Concert
Last night we went to hear her first performance on the violin...
 who knew Hot Cross Buns could be so cute?
(Did that just take you back to middle school? It did me ha.)

Love her. She's amazing. That's all :) 
She did such a good job, so proud of her! It takes strength to perform in front of a room of people when you're in the 4th grade and she did amazing! <3 

Tis' the Season ...
Everyone keeps asking me what I want for Christmas ... my parents, Chris, my brother, ...
which is so sweet and I love them ...
but I honestly have not been able to think of much because I just really don't need anything!
(no I am not running a temperature for those of you who know me well ha)

However, I did come up with a few things once I really put my mind to it ;)
(Didn't take long for me to pop off some things don't worry lol)

Christmas Wishlist 2012 
Ho Ho Ho! 

1. Gold monogrammed necklace in script with my soon to be NEW INITIALS :)
2. Marley Lilly fleece vest, also with my new initials :)
(you might begin to see a repeating theme here ha)
3. Urban Decay NEW Naked Basics
4. **this is a total splurge if Santa remembers me** Nikon 1 J2 Digital Camera ... obsessed
5. I desperately need a case for my iPhone 5! Preferably monogrammed like my old one, go figure ha.
6. I REALLY want the E-cards desk calendar for 2013, they are hysterical!!
7. Kate Spade "Mrs." earrings ... dying!
8. This will sound super cheesy BUT I really am just looking forward to spending some time with my sweet, handsome boyfriend fiance!! We have both been so busy lately with different things, I am just ready for some down time to cuddle and go to dinner and hang out with friends or at home in front of the fireplace! Love it when the house is all Christmas decorated up and feeling cozy! That's the best time for some QT!

Alrighty, that's it for today!
Still loving all my new followers from Living in Yellow! 
We are gearing up for a HUGE giveaway over at Erin's blog next week! Can't wait! I'm trying to drum up what fun things I am going to give away! Any suggestions??

Button2 >
Go enter this awesome give-away my girl Melanie is having ... Who doesn't want a credit to an awesome Etsy store that has super cute jewelry?? Plus her blog is adorable and you should be following her anyway :) 
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