Thursday, September 27, 2012

Pending Home Sales: August 2012

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for August  showing that pending home sales declined with the seasonally adjusted national index falling 2.6% since July while increasing 10.7% above the level seen in August 2011.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun points out that there have been 16 consecutive months of annual gains suggesting that buying activity remains on the mend:

"The performance in month-to-month contract signings has been uneven with ongoing shortages of lower priced inventory in much of the country, and across most price ranges in the West, but activity has remained at notably higher levels this year,... The index shows 16 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, and that has translated into a higher number of closed sales. Year-to-date existing-home sales are 9 percent above the same period last year, but sales were relatively flat from 2008 through 2011,"

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q2 2012 (Third Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third "estimate" of the Q2 2012 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand with real GDP increasing at a tepid annualized rate of 1.3% from Q1 2012.

On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 2.14% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.31%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from durable goods spending which declined at a rate of 0.2% from Q1 2012 while government spending declined across the board. 

Other categories such as residential structures also saw notable slowing from the prior quarter registering a still respectable rate of 8.5% while non-residential fixed structures expand by just 0.6%. 

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

New Home Sales: August 2012

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for August showing a slight monthly decline with sales dropping 0.3% since July but rising 27.7% above the level seen in August 2011 and remaining at an historically low level of 373K SAAR units.

It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes has now fallen to a new series low at 141K units, lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale increased to 8.3.

The monthly supply went flat at 4.5 months while the median selling price increased 16.99% and the average selling price increased 13.88% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Fourth Twenty

I am not sure that I have EVER written a Fourth Twenty - certainly not at this time of year!  The Third Twenty was published on August 8th, so we are only about 7 weeks past that.  Magnificent!

The list is a bit odd - I will point out where - but I believe that it closely follows what has occurred.  We are well into the 80s for closings anyway....

1905 Stump Road - Town of Skaneateles - unpublished sale price

1719 Russells Landing - Town of Skaneateles - $355,000

80 West Elizabeth Street - Village of Skaneateles - $150,000

1863 Sugar Maple Lane - Town of Skaneateles - $198,000  (reported twice)

9 Academy Street - Village of Skaneateles - $295,000

174 East Genesee Street - Village of Skaneateles - $270,000

2812 East Lake Road - Town of Skaneateles - $293,000

38 Academy Street - Village of Skaneateles - $349,900

25 Hannum Street - Village of Skaneateles - $225,000

4755 Austin Road - Town of Skaneateles - $278,000

1711 Lancelot Lane - Town of Skaneateles - $280,000

628 Crow Hill Road - Town of Skaneateles - $337,000

2258 Cherry Valley Turnpike - Town of Skaneateles - $170,000

639 School Street - Skaneateles Falls - $87,000

3143 West Lake Road - Town of Skaneateles - $270,000

2753 East Lake Road - Town of Skaneateles - $499,900

3 Ramble Wood Drive - Village of Skaneateles - $557,500

24 East Elizabeth Street - Village of Skaneateles - $220,000

1025 Autumntree Court - Town of Skaneateles - $402,500

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: July 2012

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in July, nationally, home prices increased 0.2% since June rising 3.90% above the level seen in July 2011.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P/Case-Shiller: July 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for July reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 1.52% since June while the Composite-20 index increased 1.59% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing a lift through the typically more active spring-summer season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data while continuing to capture rising prices, is starting to see a leveling off of the trend as the data moves through the summer transactions and heads for the typical declines seen in late-summer and fall.

The 10-city composite index increased 0.62% as compared to July 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 1.20% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.49% for the 10-city national index and -29.98% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use to view the full release.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Radar Watching: July 2012

As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets.

As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is showing continued year-over-year while prices continue to bounce from the lows set in late-January.

The latest data shows that as of late-July, prices have increased 4.0% above the level seen in July 2011 continuing the pattern of past years with prices now starting lose a little lift as the data moves from the typically most active spring period into a topping of activity seen in summer.

Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller report to indicate more or less consistent trends with July showing continued but slowing improvement.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: August 2012

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) showed a worsening of the national economy with the index declining from the prior month to stand at a very weak -0.87 while the three month moving average also declined near contraction territory at -0.47.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Babies, Biltmore & Business, Oh My!

Hola Chicas (& chicos)!! :) 
I have got to stop this habit of not blogging for weeks and then overloading with one major long blog post!!!

I swear, I have no clue where 2012 has gone...? 
It has just flown by! I can not believe it is FALL already!
(my favorite time of year by the way!)

I'll just go ahead and throw it all out there this post ... no beating around the bush ... 
I moved to Keller Williams! 
I am super excited about the new opportunities that I have been presented with in my real estate career! This past 2 weeks has been totally crazy and hectic because I decided to make a change in my life and switch from RE/MAX over to KW... it was a hard decision ... and I literally thought about it for a month. I loved my previous office and all the people there :( but just felt like I could grow my business more at my new office. With that said, I have started my own Real Estate Team! Woop Woop!! :) 

Take a look at this ... 

My new logo :) 

How do you feel about it?? I'm pretty pumped! 

This also took some thinking ... but when Chris and I get married next year, I didn't want to give up Gentry only because I have built my business around my name for the last 7 years!! So I decided I will hyphenate, and be Dana Gentry-Jackson. Which prompted my new team name! 

This week will be crazy switching everything over (think 30 signs, business cards, new website, marketing info, blah blah blah!) ... but I am excited! I already started with the bloggy, so take a look around at the "my business" and "about me" tabs, as they are slightly new ;)

A lot has happened since my last post so just to sum it up ...

You know my adorable Godson, Connor ... right ??

Well ... his BABY BROTHER is here!!! :) 

(Idk why those dang black lines are on there?!)
He is adorable ... that is a cute little collage his aunt Steph made from the day he was born.
PS. How good does my BFF Chrissy look in that pic? Eye makeup done and all! Ha! She's a trooper! <3

Carson Alexander :)
Is that the sweetest face you have ever seen in your life or what?
 I am obsessed. Purely obsessed. Love him so much. 

Last weekend we had a busy weekend ... 

On Friday night we attended the Art of Making Miracles Charity Event for the Makenna Foundation in the RE/MAX parking lot ... this was the 12th year and it was awesome! 
KY Wildcat Theme this year!  

Chris and I came home with some goodies ... 
One of which being this... that I won for Chris for his bday :) 

Thats right ... an autographed pic of Anthony Davis, #1 NBA draft pick and 2012 National Defensive Player of the year candidate ... not to mention a UK Wildcat legend! Ha! It was our trophy piece of the night ;) 
Chris was VERY excited! 
It was an awesome night raising money for a great cause!!

In case you're wondering where the picture is now .. Ohhhh in my hallway, where a really cute mirror WAS hanging ha ... pick your battles ;) that is what I am telling myself LOL 

The next morning, Chris, myself, my brother and my dad left out early to head to Ashville, NC to my cousins wedding at the Biltmore House.
We had sooo much fun!!

Her wedding was beautiful! She looked beautiful! It was perfect. 
How pretty were her flowers on the tables?
For favors they gave little personalized jars of honey ... it was adorable! 

Jessica & Me :) 

Chris & I <3
(Dress is from Bella Rose in Lexington)

My other Chris ... my brother... ha :) 

The next day while we were there we went to the Biltmore and toured it ... it was AMAZING!!
If you have never been I would highly suggest going ... it was so neat! Ashville is the cutest little place and the mountains were beautiful! 

Here are a few pics from the day ... 

So insane. Loved this place! 

The flower garden behind the Biltmore

My dad, me and my bro. 

I have a million pics ... but didn't have time to upload them all! 
We had a blast! 
We also visited Bravard College in NC, which is where Chris went to school ... it was fun to see! :) 

Next .... 
I didn't get to give a shout out on Grandparent's Day ... ;( 
But we had a great time celebrating with Chris's parents and the kids ... 

I ended the night talking to my Papaw on the phone ... and watching Frankie sleep like a spoiled baby ha!

Ok that is about all the major stuff over the last two weeks! 

This week I am working on our wedding website and app! Anyone have any tips? Would love to hear them!
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Friday, September 21, 2012

Massive Unemployment: Mass Layoffs August 2012

The latest release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Mass Layoff Report indicated a decline in large-scale layoffs with 1267 mass layoff events for August resulting in 127,454 initial unemployment claimants on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The BLS considers a mass layoff event to be a condition where there are at least fifty initial claims for unemployment insurance originating from a single employer over a period of five consecutive weeks.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: September 2012

The September release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated an improvement of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index rising to a contraction level of -1.9 while assessments the future activity index increased notably to a level of 41.2.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Skaneateles Real Estate - The Bi-Monthly Update

Summer is over, sort of, but it doesn't feel like it is.  I've had only one new apple so far thanks to the frost, and it was hard!  Usually I stop on Route 20 coming out of Lafayette and grab the first of the Jersey Macs.  Besides not having time this year, it just hasn't felt right.  Maybe because the rush is still on for real estate, and I haven't done the fall open house with cider and donuts because everything is selling.  It's just very different this year.

What is really different is the amount of business we are all doing.  Hold on to your hat!

Currently there are 117 active listings in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service.  Of these, 34 are in the Village and 27 are reputed to be waterfront properties.  Since I last wrote on September 5th, 13 new listings have come on the market.  Five of these are re-listings with a good deal of price reductions.  All of the three waterfront listings are in this category.  In the Village there are four new homes out there ready for their buyers.  They range in price from $400,000 to $800,000 or thereabouts.  There are four new ones in the town section.  Those range from the mid-$100,000 to higher $300,000s.  If the selling continues, I am willing to guess that half of all of these will be gone in two months' time.

In the contingent-under contract-pending category we have a low of 23 waiting to close.  Five are new to this, three of the non-waterfront properties averaging around $200,000 are "sold" but not closed.  The two new waterfront additions are quite lovely and higher priced, as you would imagine.

So of course if you've been reading this blog you know that if there are so few in the last category, then a lot must have sold and closed.  Eight more to be exact!  That brings us to 84 for the year, an unheard-of number in recent times.  As I have reported since spring, the majority are Village homes.  It's been a great year for the Village.  In the next week I will publish the Fourth Twenty closings.  Incredible!

BUT!  If you don't know what to buy or want to wait and see if your favorite Village home will come on the market in the next year, you are more than welcome to lease 31 East Elizabeth Street.  It's a Victorian with almost 2,000sf, four bedrooms, two full baths, a detached single car garage, and within easy walking distance of everything - shops, schools, lakefront, parks....The cost is $1,800 per month plus utilities.  Nicely-behaved pets are welcome.  Enjoy the seasons from the warp-around porch at the corner of Elizabeth and State Street, then stroll on down to our office to the left of Doug's Fish Fry and check out our listings.  Not such a bad place to live, work and play.

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims September 20 2012

Today’s jobless claims report indicated that both initial and continued unemployment claims declined slightly as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained just below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 3,000 to 382,000 claims from a revised 385,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 32,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.6%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 2.16 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.93 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.09 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Existing Home Sales Report: August 2012

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for August showing a notable increase in sales with total home sales climbing 7.8% since July rising 9.3% above the level seen in August 2011.

Single family home sales also improved rising 8.0% from July and 10.0% above the level seen in August 2011 while the median selling price went flat on the month but increased 10.2% above the level seen in August 2011.

Inventory of single family homes increased 6.3% from July dropping 16.3% below the level seen in
August 2011 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a fairly balanced monthly supply of 6.2 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.

New Residential Construction Report: August 2012

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed gains in August with single family permits increasing from July while starts also increased over the same period.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased a slight 0.2% from July to 512K single family units (SAAR), and increased 19.3% above the level seen in August 2011 but still remained  an astonishing 71.52% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 5.5% from July to 535K units (SAAR), and climbed 26.8% above the level seen in August 2011 and remained a stunning 70.65% below the peak set in early 2006.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings September 2012

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing an notable improvement in September with the composite HMI index rising to 40 while the "buyer traffic" index climbed to 31, a level not seen since May 2006.

While all indicators have made truly spectacular improvements this year, it's important to note that conditions still remain fairly distressed by historic standards.

Although, looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last few months of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.