Friday, May 31, 2013

New Listing and Open House Alert! 3862 Highland Ave

I love this house!  When I first got to Skaneateles I fell in love with Highland Ave, just outside the Village.  I thought there was a place I could walk the dogs (Anna and Sebastian then) and Alex would find friends.  It seemed so congenial - space between homes, large yards, small homes as well as larger ones.  Alas, there were none at the time I could afford, so I came as close to it as I could.  I still walked the dogs there, though, on the loop.

So here is your chance - 3862 Highland Ave, open Sunday from 1:00 to 3:00.  It has three real bedrooms but also the possibility of a fourth which could be part of an in-law suite on the entrance floor.  Two-car attached garage, LARGE inground pool, almost an acre (.99!) with privacy trees and a barely used road between you and the neighbors to the south.  Inside are hardwood floors, a wood-burning fireplace, kitchen with stainless steel appliances, and a sun room that was so bright when I took the photos I couldn't get a good shot of it!  The decks are great - so is the balcony off the master bedroom overlooking the pool.  Really.


So come and see - you will fall in love!  The price is $279,000 which is just under the assessment.  Taxes are more reasonable in Skaneateles as I've said before than other areas.  (Thank you waterfront properties and Welch Allyn!)  For more photos, please see the listing:  ML#S292041.  To get there, go east on Genesee Street in the Village and veer left up Onondaga. Turn left again outside the Village limits onto Highland and watch the numbers.  3862 is on the right hand side.  See you there!

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Pending Home Sales: April 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for April showing that pending home sales improved with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 0.3% from March and increasing 10.3% above the level seen in April 2012.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is suggests that gaining sales and tight inventory should work to continue to push up home prices:

"The housing market continues to squeak out gains from already very positive conditions.  Pending contracts so far this year easily correspond to higher closed home sales in 2013, ... Because of inventory shortages, higher home sales will push up home values to the highest level in five years,"

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims May 30 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 10,000 to 354,000 claims from 344,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 63,000 claims to 2.986 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.72 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.77 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.50 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.


Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 29 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) jumped 11 basis points to 3.76% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 3% and the refinance application volume declined 12% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2013

Yesterday's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased again rising a notable 1.38% since February while the Composite-20 index also increased 1.38% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up even in the face of typically lower seasonal transactions.

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may continue to rise in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 10.26% as compared to March 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 10.87% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -28.64% for the 10-city national index and -28.02% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Friday, May 24, 2013

New Home Sales: April 2013

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing a improvement with sales climbing 2.25% from March and rising 28.98% above the level seen in April 2012 but still remaining at an historically low level of 454K SAAR units.

It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes appears to be mounting as unsold units totaled 156K, still though near the lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale increased to 4.0.

The monthly supply went flat at 4.1 months while the median selling price increased 14.89% and the average selling price increased 14.90% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: March 2013

Yesterday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in March, nationally, home prices increased a notable 1.28% from February and rose 7.23% above the level seen in March 2012.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

New Listing on the Lake


 The lot I have listed down Firelane 21B now has the possibility of a 1500sf. camp being built for it.  And for only $350,000 - brand new!

The owners have built several of the cottages on the road in the past 20 years and so we sat down to write up what it would cost for them - Lake Country Construction - to build another one on this lot.

The price floored me.  The camp would have a basement that could be a walkout.  Upstairs a bedroom, full bath, family/living room and kitchen.  The top floor would be left unfinished at this price, but could be a huge master suite or two bedrooms.  The camp was already built for someone else, so if you are very interested I can show you which one it is.

The beauty of this plan is that you get a totally new house that would contain your fixtures, your layout, your
choices.  Renovations cost more than new builds, in many cases, and trying to retrofit an old camp is difficult.  This one is a blank slate - you decorate it right from the start.  A wrap-around porch to take advantage of the views?  Of course it would cost more, but then - it's your choice!  Don't need a full block basement?  The owners will build the camp for $25,000 LESS and put it on piers.

Water will come from the lake (our very, very pure lake), the septic system will be in and functional at this price,
and the owners are local builders so they know the Town and codes and people.

Not a whole lot more information online, but the ML# is S291630.   I can sit with you and show you the plans, you can speak with the builders, and next year at this time you may be opening up your new seasonal cottage on the west side of Skaneateles Lake!

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Existing Home Sales Report: April 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April showing an increase in sales with total home sales rising 0.6% since March and climbing 9.7% above the level seen in April 2012.

Single family home sales also improved climbing 1.2% from March rising 9.0% above the level seen in April 2012 while the median selling price increased a notable 11% above the level seen a year earlier.

Inventory of single family homes increased from March to 1.92 million units but still remained 11.9% below the level seen in April 2012 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 5.3 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.



Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 22 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) jumped 11 basis points to 3.65% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume declined 12% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




Monday, May 20, 2013

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: April 2013

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated worsening for the national economy with the index falling to a weak level of -0.53 from a level of -0.23 in March while the three month moving average declined to a level of -0.04.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Open House Alert! 115 Raspberry

Sunday from 1:00 to 3:00 I will hold 115 Raspberry in Camillus open.  The price has just been reduced to $299,900 which makes it a bargain!

Not just a four-bedroom home, it also has a fifth bedroom over the garage and larger than the others, I think.  A corner room, now used as a media room.

Not just one of many homes with back yards looking at other back yards, it has more privacy thanks to trees planted by the owner and the way the house was situated on the large lot.

Not just a full basement, but one finished in three ways: a kids' playroom in part, an adult bar, and the owner's office.  Still room for storage, too!

Not just an eat-in family room, but also a formal dining room and formal living room (with a bay window and a view!)

Not just a pretty kitchen, but one with stainless steel appliances, stacked laundry, newer ceramic tiled floors and a gas fireplace at the far family room end.

Come and see it!  ML#S285298 for photos....Take Route 5 from 695 to Ike Dixon Road across from Gilfillan's to a quick right onto Scenic Drive.  Then it's about half a mile to Raspberry...up the hill and we are on the left.  See you there!

Friday, May 17, 2013

Skaneateles Real Estate - The Sometime Update (May 4th - May 16th

This business is one of ebb and flow.  One week the phones are fairly quiet, and the next I am working 12 hour days.  The one sure thing to start the real estate juices moving is if I go away.  I took a day to go down to the city and see Alex, Rachel, and Liam.  I told people this ensured a house would sell, and even picked out the house that would sell this time, and sure enough it did.  I spent a lot of my time standing in the park by the East River arranging showings (that get more difficult the farther away I go) and accepting offers.  I plan to be away a lot this summer to stimulate business!  The real estate magic even worked down there.  After months of looking, they found a two-bedroom apartment just where they wanted to be and for less $$ than they had expected!  (Still more than the average Central New York mortgage, but still...) Thank goodness...there's another little boy coming in August!

So currently in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service there are only 92 active listings.  Of these, 23 are in the Village and 25 are waterfront ('tis the season).  Two homes were re-listed, one in the Village and the other a great homestead for the right person.  Seven other new ones came on, ranging in price from the mid-$100,000 to almost a million.  I look at the numbers for the new listings and realize that a few years ago they would have been higher, perhaps in the 10% to 15% range.  But as homes sell - and they are still selling, I expect the numbers to go up.  Now is the time to buy, I tell you!

There are five groups that have taken this to heart and placed offers on homes in the past two weeks.  Three are village homes, around $500,000 or so.  This continues last year's trend...Another is waterfront and a third is a new build, from what I can tell.

We are up to 27, my lucky number, of sold and closed homes in the area.  The latest was listed in the lower $100,000 range.  Last year by this time we had 29 closings, so certainly we are on track for another great year.  You know the old saying:  "You snooze, you lose....buy now!"

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims May 16 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable increase to initial unemployment claims and a slight decline to continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 32,000 to 360,000 claims from 328,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 4,000 claims to 3.009 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.79 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.97 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.76 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.


The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: May 2013

The March release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated a slight worsening of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a weak level of -5.2 while assessments the future activity improved to a level of 32.3.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

New Residential Construction Report: April 2013

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results in April with a notable declines to housing starts while housing permits improved notably on the month with total housing permits increasing by a notable 14.3%.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 3.0% from March to 617K single family units (SAAR), and  increased 27.5% above the level seen in April 2012 but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts declined 2.1% from March to 610K units (SAAR), but rose 20.8% above the level seen in April 2012 but still remained well below the peak set in early 2006.


Wednesday, May 15, 2013

A metaphor for why Goodness of Fit tests are, well, not very good.

I am proud to say I learned my econometric from Art Goldberger, who had little use for R-squared.

Anyway, a smart friend of mine (who works in industry and therefore might not want to be named) pointed out that he could probably fit the brushstrokes of a Jackson Pollack painting with a 17 degree polynomial and get an excellent R-squared.  But he still couldn't predict what a next brush stroke might look like.


Monday, May 13, 2013

SNAP Food Stamp Participation: February 2013

As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn, participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.

In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has dwarfed the last peak (which looks like a minor blip by comparison) set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina.

The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture indicated that in February, a notable 213,962 individual recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total still increasing 2.66% on a year-over-year basis.

Individuals receiving food stamp benefits declined to 47.55 million which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population, declined 1.66% since February 2012 to now stand at a whopping 19.42% of the population.

Households receiving food stamps benefits declined by 82,324 to 23 million households with the current total rising 3.84% above the level seen a year earlier

As participation continues to swell, so too has the total nominal benefit cost climbing 2.32% on a year-over-year basis to $6.30 billion for the month.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales April 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.1% from March, and a gain of 3.7% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales rose 0.84% from March increasing 1.8% above the level seen in April 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales rose just 0.32% over the same period.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims May 09 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 4,000 to 323,000 claims from 327,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 27,000 claims to 3.005 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.76 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.02 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.79 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.


Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 09 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went flat at 3.47% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 2% and the refinance application volume increased 8% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices February 2012

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in February, the price of residential properties increased a notable 1.91% since January and rose 29.26% above the level seen in February 2012.

Clearly, the slight pullback in prices seen late 2012 has been completely surpassed by another, notable leg up.

With the prior late-90s era peak having been bested handily by the latest price run up, it will be interesting to see how long this period of house price inflation can run.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.