Thursday, September 30, 2010

Skaneateles Real Estate - The Weekly Update

I write this as rain pours down outside. I let Koko out for a minute and realized that our small fish pond is higher than it's been in a very long time. The downspouts are streaming water - and have been for at least a couple hours. Check your basements, everyone! Beware of water on the road! This is a gully-washer!

The other night was vastly different as I drove home late from an appointment. Yes, I was showing houses in the dark again, I'm afraid! I caught part of a discussion on NPR about micropolises - not megalopolises, but the opposite. The idea was that small areas with all the amenities would flourish in the new age to come because of energy concerns primarily. People would want to walk to the grocery store and buy locally, doctors and lawyers would be nearby as well as private homes. "The wave of the future!" I drove down Route 20 right about that time into Skaneateles. I think the definition of micropolis must include "village."

There are currently 152 active listings in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service. Of these, 33 are in the micropolis. Five new listings came on this past week - two are re-lists with new prices, one going up (new construction) and the other coming down. The three new ones include waterfront, lake rights across from a home in the town, and a lovely village property for under $300,000.

We still have only 4 homes marked contingent and there are 21 listed as "U" and "P," which means they are just waiting to close. Forty-seven homes have closed this year, a number we've had for almost a month now.

I was asked how sales are going several times this week, specifically in the surrounding areas. "Is it picking up?" is the general question. One of the best things about writing this blog is that it forces me to learn and know the statistics of the area.

My theory, as I started, was that Skaneateles is higher end so there will be fewer sales, as I already knew, but the other towns would have held fairly steady in the past three years. Here is what I found:

Elbridge - In 2008 there were 45 closed properties by the end of the third quarter. In 2009 there were 35, and this year there are only 23. (That's a 49% decrease over the three years.)

Camillus - In 2008 there were 220 sales; in 2009 there were 193, and this year there are 156 homes that have sold. (29%) I smell a pattern.....

Marcellus - In 2008 - 50 homes. In 2009 - 40 homes. This year - 53! So much for patterns! An increase of 6%!

Auburn - 147 in 2008, 138 in 2009, now 128. (13% decline) Okay, back to the pattern.

Syracuse - 699 in 2008, 610 in 2009, and 570 this year. (19% decline) Same pattern.

Skaneateles - In 2008 we had closed 35 homes by the third quarter. In 2009 the number was 61. This year that pesky 47 is our number....but wait! That's actually an increase - 26%?! Wow! (Sort of, because I'd rather it were the 61....)

And all this goes to show that Skaneateles is different, there is no predicting - however I will predict that next year the numbers will shoot up again because some of these homes will just sell because they need to and others will buy because they need to. But aren't statistics interesting?