Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims January 31 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable jump to both initial and continued jobless claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 38,000 to 368,000 claims from 330,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 22,000 claims to 3.197 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.5%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 2.11 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.71 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.82 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

Does Modigliani-Miller apply to countries?

If it does, the capital structure of the US is just fine.  Current GDP is 15.8 trillion.  Let's apply a  real discount rate of 4 percent (which is probably high, given that the yield on 10-years TIP is negative), and assume a real long-term growth of 2 percent (which is likely low).  This means the country is worth about $316 trillion (this figure includes human capital as well as asset values).

Total debt outstanding in the US, public and private, is $55 trillion.  So we are about 17 percent debt funded, which means we are about 83 percent equity funded.  This should be OK.  What I am missing here?

(note: it was Matthew Yglesias' Slate piece today that got me thinking along these lines).

  

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2012 (First Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q4 2012 GDP report showing that the economy unexpectedly slumped with real GDP declining at an annualized rate of 0.1% from Q3 2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.54% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was a decline of 0.04%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines to fixed non-residential investment with the structures component declining 1.1% from Q3, and notable declines in govenment spending particularly national defense with a 22.2% in federal national defense spending from Q3.

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 15.3% from Q3.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

ADP National Employment Report: January 2013

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in January as private employers added 192,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.54% above the level seen in January 2012.

Perusing the rest of the data in the ADP dataset you can see the the economy is currently showing the most growth for small to mid-sized service providing jobs with goods-producing jobs remaining near trough levels.

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – January 30 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 7 basis point to 3.57% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 2% and the refinance application volume declined 10% over the same period.

Clearly, the Federal Reserve's QE3 announcement and implementation has had a notable effect on mortgage rates in recent weeks continuing to lift refinance application activity and possibly helping to establish a base of sorts to purchase applications.

The question is though, if the Fed is stimulating this activity by forcing artificially low rates, what would these trends look like if prevailing rates were based on a more fundamental market function?

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Confession: Today I was bad ...

So today I was bad on a couple different levels ... ha
I had a little work to do...
 and then a little free time that I delegated to
Part 1 of getting my life back together! 

Do you ever look in the mirror and think "Gosh I don't look like myself??" or is that just me that does that??
(Hope not, or else maybe there is something wrong with me and no one is saying anything ha)

Well the last couple of days I have looked in the mirror and thought that.
Today I came to the conclusion why ... I am PALE, like the palest of pale, which leads to my makeup not looking good, my clothes don't look good, my hair, you name it. White as a freaking ghost. UGH!

So Bad Thing #1 was that I went to the tanning bed today. GASP! I know, I know. It's awful.
I felt bad going, felt bad laying there, and felt bad when I got out. But I just couldn't help it! 
I need some color and some UV rays and the spray just wasn't doing it for me! Don't judge. :(

Ok next ... 
Bad Thing #2 (unless your name is Chris Jackson ha)
 involves this little lady ...

We decided to do a little Valentine's Day shopping this evening.
Dana+Kelly+Shopping = EMPTY WALLET!
Ha. Not a good combo!

I came home with an entire bag of things ... which is currently being hidden in my car ha ;)
And will remain in my car until Valentine's Day <3
Secrets, secrets are no fun ... unless you're the one keeping the secret HA! Sorry babe!

Bad Thing #3 ...
(Unless your name is Rebecca and you own the cutest online shop around!)
I was scrolling through my Facebook newsfeed as my usual nightly routine ... and saw this ...

And thought to myself ... "Dana, you just went to Vicki's ... you don't need to look!"
But who was I kidding?
In less than 3 seconds flat I was on HERE ordering looking at these fun little items ...

WANT.EVERY.COLOR!!!

I have the turquiose and have gotten so many compliments on them, I just love them ... 

So tonight I got the royal blue ones to wear to watch my KY CATS play :)
Love them. Can't wait to get them!

This picture is actually the Piko Dress that I wanted so so so bad but I guess I didn't click fast enough because the black was sold out in a milisecond ... so I got the white one for now. Figured it will look cute in the Summer with a tan ... or over a pair of skinnies with my boots now! They are the BEST fabric, soft and comfortable. You could live in these tops! 

Which is why I also ordered another Maddie top ... :) 

There are a ton of colors! 

I got red tonight thought I will wear it for Valentine's Day maybe ? 

These are the best and fit so good, not all tight and weird! 

This was a bad/good thing I guess lol ;) 

If you aren't "Liking" her page on Facebook you are missing out on some super nice and affordable cuteness

Go Check it out Now! 

Bad Thing #4 

Went to Kroger to pick up a couple of things and somehow these ended up in my buggy...

Already had 3 packs tonight. 

A bad thing, a very very bad thing!!

Someone needs to hide them asap. 

I did do one good thing today!

I put on some tennis shoes and took Frankie on a walk tonight...

We wanted to enjoy this amazing weather we are experiencing here in good ol' Kentucky! 70 degrees!! Woohoo!
Totally felt like an awesome Spring day. 

I drove with the windows down and everything! 

But don't get used to it friends ... 

Only in Kentucky is it 70 one day and 31 three days later :( 

Alright, I am off to watch Pretty Little Liars that I recorded! 

XO,

S&P/Case-Shiller: November 2012

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for November reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined a slight 0.17% since October while the Composite-20 index declined 0.09% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly demonstrates that the typical seasonal pattern is continuing to play with price weakness coming as a result of lower transactions.  If this trend continues, prices should continue to decline into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

It's important to recognize though that on a year-over-year basis, nominal prices remain in positive territory possibly indicating that this seasons seasonal weakness may minor compared to recent years.

The 10-city composite index increased 4.54% as compared to November 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 5.52% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.05% for the 10-city national index and -29.39% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Sledding in 48 degrees!

This weekend a friend of our's invited us out to a property where they have some snow machines that

MAKE SNOW!

What better thing could you think of to do?

Go sledding ... on real snow ... when it was 48 degrees outside ... and then get in your car and drive away, not on slippery roads with snow everywhere ha!
It was a blast!

Photo Dump ...

They got these snow bibs year before last, for Christmas, and it didn't snow a single flake all winter! 

So they finally got to break them in! 

She stole my new Free People leopard toboggan, but she looked cute in it so I gave in because I love her:)

So excited! 

Isn't it funny to see snow and then a bunch of green grass in the same area? lol it was weird! 

Lastly, my personal favorite, that is Chris thinking he can snow board down a big hill, maybe he has been watching a little too much of the X Games ;) 

We had so much fun! Can't wait to go back again! 

Today I am off to work for a bit then run some errands and get ready for the Bachelor party tonight which is being held at my house with guests including this pretty lady and this pretty lady!  :) 

I am going to make snacks and dinner while we enjoy Sean and his crazy ladies on the television ... and make our guesses at who will stick around another week! 

I wasn't a huge Sean fan in the beginning ... when it was between him and Arie, I was Arie all the way!
But I will say he is growing on me. I love his personality and how kind and giving he is.

And I think he is so sweet with Sarah ...
 I like her a lot.
She is super sweet and just a normal girl I feel like!

I wanted to like Tierra ... I really really did.
When she did her interview on the first episode I thought she was so cute and fun!
I will say, after the last episode, she is a little out there... and that is being nice ha.

And I hate to say this, but I am glad to see Kacie B go home ...
I liked her previously, but this year I kinda felt like she was trying too hard and maybe she was just back on there to be on TV ... I didn't like that she had one up on all the other ladies, but hey, that's reality TV for ya!

Have a great Monday!PS. Who is your pick for Bachelor thus far? :) 

Pending Home Sales: December 2012

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December showing that pending home sales declined notably with the seasonally adjusted national index falling 4.3% from November but increasing 6.9% above the level seen in December 2011.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that while supply limitations may be negativity influencing contract activity, buyer foot traffic is strong:

"The supply limitation appears to be the main factor holding back contract signings in the past month. Still, contract activity has risen for 20 straight months on a year-over-year basis ... Buyer interest remains solid, as evidenced by a separate Realtor survey which shows that buyer foot traffic is easily outpacing seller traffic."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Sunday Social Link Up

Well hello there Sunday night ... my favorite TV show night... I look forward to you alllll week! Ha! ;)

Tonight I am linking up with Ashley and Neely for a little Sunday Social!

1. What is your ideal way to relax?Definitely all snuggled up in a blanket in bed with Frankie... 

(and sometimes Chris if he is good, ha I kid, I kid) while watching a plethora of trash knowledge & information on TV including: Teen Mom 2, Real Housewives of anything, Pretty Little Liars, Bachelor, you name it ha. 2. Where is your favorite place to be?Hmm... this is a difficult one. I guess it depends on my mood. Sometimes I like to be at home with Chris hanging out and relaxing, sometimes I like to be working because I could never stay home all the time, I would go loco! Or if I had to pick an actual place, I would say the beach for sure, nothing better than some sun and sand in my opinion! 

3. Who do you consider your biggest role model? This is too much for me to think of right now, lol I don't know the answer to this. Ella just asked me the same thing for some school project last week and I told her that was my least favorite question because everyone expects you to say some fabulous person that is famous, or someone who totally changed your life! I need more time to think on this one. 4. What does your life look like in 3 years?I think in 3 years I will be happily married :) Hopefully living as great a life that I am now, running a successful business, and whatever else is in God's plan for me ;) Just thankful to have the blessings I have now.5. If you could go back and change one decision, what would it be?I think this is a hard one too, but I would have to say the decision to end a really special friendship I had with someone a few years ago, over a reason that I am still not even sure of, is probably the one thing I would change. It is so hard when you're so close to someone, to lose that when you're not even really sure why. Responding or reaching out to that person after years is a scary thing to do... but lately I have been feeling led to do that, so I will keep you posted on this one! 6. What is your biggest accomplishment in life so far?Ok now if you would have asked me this about 9pm last night I would have answered:"Learning how to fishtail braid by practicing on Ava a few 100 times" haha

I have been wanting to learn for a long time now and just never had the time, so last night we watched youtube videos and played and finally I got it! :) However, the real answer to this question ... my biggest accomplishment so far is just how much I have grown my business and the fact that I sold over $10million in real estate in 2012 on my own!!! I am proud to have started my own team...

 ... proud to be working with some amazing people, and proud to know that I have done this on my own... not handed down a business from my parents, not by riding someone else's coat tails, but by truly learning the business and how to help people, and learning what NOT to do from previous people I was around in this business, and what TO do by some other very successful people. This is my biggest accomplishment without a doubt, and I am very blessed to have my business. Happy Sunday Friends! Go Link Up! 

TGIS!

You have NO idea how happy I am that it is Saturday!

I have had a crazy busy week, and today I purposely scheduled nothing so I could relax, enjoy some time with Chris and the kids, clean my house, do laundry, get a spray tan and my nails done ha, and just play catch up on my personal life!

This will be a random tid bit of fun pics and events from the week :)

I cleaned out my office and desk and added some cuteness:

 New Lamp, TJ Maxx $39, steal!!! :)

New Chairs ... also TJ Maxx find .. $89 each! Aren't they so cute? They're comfy too! I am adding a little table in the middle but waiting on my mom to make the burlap table cover :) Can't wait! 

School was called off on Friday because we literally got a centimeter of snow lol so Ella and Ava learned real world skills and went to work with me! 

They were stuffin' envelopes, printing return address labels, returning text messages haha you name it, they were doing it! Such good little helpers!

Frankie went and got his hair did and now he is even handsomer (is that a word?) than before!

I found two wedding hair styles I like ... 

Chris wants me to wear my hair down and wavy like normal, but I want to add a little something to it, I like Jess's hair do above, kind of teased up a little, I think that would like pretty with my veil. What do ya'll think? 

Then I love this Carrie "do" below for bridesmaids ... 

Side swept is my fave ... it would be so pretty! 

That's pretty much all on the wedding front I have right now ha. 

Last night we went to Chris's nephew's 1st Birthday Party! 

He was so cute as always! And a very neat cake eater too! He didn't make a huge mess like normal 1 yr olds lol ... he kept wanting to feed it to everyone else :) So precious!

We enjoyed some yummy chili for dinner! 

How cute is this sign Lisa made? 

She and her house are straight out of Pottery Barn and Pinterest ... the cutest you have ever seen! 

I got to play with Jack, my favorite ;)
I mean he is literally a baby model ... he needs to be picked up from Crewcuts!

How cute is he? 

Adorable. 

I will leave you with this ... 

I saw this a while ago and loved it, then couldn't find it ... and then this week I saw it on Emily Maynard's Facebook! Love her. And love this. I am printing it and putting it in my Bible so I won't lose it again!

Happy Saturday!

I am off to clean and run errands :)